This summer I joined Vistage, a CEO coaching and peer mentoring organization. When I joined I learned the group was going golfing together in about two months. I had never swung a golf club before in my life. So I decided to take some golf lessons and see how I liked it. I took the lessons and hit the driving range a couple of times a week during that two months, all the while driven forward by my desire to not look foolish in front of my Vistage peers.

The morning of the golf event I arrived early and hit the driving range one last time. It was my best (actually my only decent) hour of practice ever and I went into the day with some optimism. I certainly did everything I reasonably could to prepare (more like cram) for the event. So there we are at the first tee. I set up and, feeling pretty good, took the first swing of the “real thing” I had prepared for. My club broke. In half. I stood there holding an empty shaft and watching the head come to a landing 30 yards away. I just shook my head and laughed.

In spite of all the worrying I did about that moment and all the times I played it out in my head, what actually happened was completely outside of anything I imagined or planned for.

I borrowed a driver from the pro shop, and played the round (not well, by any stretch, but my peers were very supportive).

I think this unexpected club breaking event illustrates a common property of life. I estimate that at least half the time, when we try to make contingency plans, the thing that actually goes wrong (or right) is something we didn’t even consider during our planning.

This is kind of a tough reality to do anything about. But perhaps the worst mistake is to think we know for sure how things will go because we have a plan. When making decisions about the future, knowing things probably won’t go according to plan is a good starting point.